Seasonal autoregressive moving average model-based prediction of bacteriophage dysentery incidence trends in Xinjiang / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Xinjiang from 2005-2018, to explore the feasibility and applicability of seasonal autoregressive moving average model to predict the incidence pattern of bacillary dysentery in Xinjiang, and to provide a scientific basis for decision-making in the prevention and control of bacillary dysentery. Methods Descriptive analysis was used to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery, and Python software was used to construct a SARIMA model and predict the incidence trend. Results The average annual reported incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Xinjiang from 2005-2018 was 35.71/100 000, with peak incidence concentrated in June-October. The difference in the incidence rate of bacillary dysentery among the age groups was statistically significant (χ2=145605.90, P60 years age groups. The resulting model was SARIMA (0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 with all parameters statistically significant (P12 model has good accuracy in predicting the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Xinjiang and can be used for medium-term prediction of the disease.

Moderation effect of antecedent rainfall conditions on incidence of bacillary dysentery following heavy rainfall in Anhui Province / 环境与职业医学

Background Climate change leads to frequent heavy rainfall events, and higher incidences of bacillary dysentery after heavy rainfall have been observed. The impacts of heavy rainfall and its antecedent rainfall conditions on the disease are worth paying attention to. Objective To quantitatively analyze how the relationship between heavy rainfall events and bacillary dysentery occurrence is modified by antecedent rainfall conditions in Anhui Province and explore the different moderation effects in urban and rural contexts. Methods CN05.1 meteorological data of Anhui Province and cases of bacillary dysentery of the same area were collected from January 1, 2006 to August 31, 2017. An exposure-response Poisson regression model of heavy rainfall events and the number of daily cases was constructed to explore the moderation effect of antecedent rainfall conditions on the incidence of bacillary dysentery, and further stratified by urban and rural areas. Results This study included 129 459 cases of bacillary dysentery, with a daily average of 30.39. Compared with dry antecedent conditions without heavy rainfall, dry antecedent conditions with heavy rainfall had no obvious different effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery for the whole province (P>0.05). But wet antecedent conditions significantly increased the risk of bacillary dysentery for the whole province after heavy rainfall (wet antecedent conditions without heavy rainfall: RR=1.281, 95%CI: 1.264-1.298; wet antecedent conditions with heavy rainfall: RR=1.267, 95%CI: 1.167-1.376). After urban and rural stratification, antecedent rainfall conditions also showed a significant moderation effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery following heavy rainfall events. Compared with dry antecedent conditions without heavy rainfall, dry antecedent conditions with heavy rainfall had no obvious effect on the incidence of bacillary dysentery for the urban and the rural populations (P > 0.05). However, wet antecedent conditions without heavy rainfall (urban: RR=1.391, 95%CI: 1.362-1.421; rural: RR=1.222, 95%CI: 1.201-1.243) and wet antecedent conditions with heavy rainfall (urban: RR=1.364, 95%CI: 1.193-1.559; rural: RR=1.218, 95%CI: 1.098-1.352) significantly increased the risk of bacillary dysentery in both rural and urban areas. Conclusion In the influence of heavy rainfall on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Anhui Province, antecedent rainfall conditions have a certain moderation effect in the whole province and in both urban and rural areas, and the risk of bacillary dysentery is increased under wet antecedent conditions.

Effects of daily mean temperature and other meteorological variables on bacillary dysentery in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

BACKGROUND@#Although previous studies have shown that meteorological factors such as temperature are related to the incidence of bacillary dysentery (BD), researches about the non-linear and interaction effect among meteorological variables remain limited. The objective of this study was to analyze the effects of temperature and other meteorological variables on BD in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which is a high-risk area for BD distribution.@*METHODS@#Our study was based on the daily-scale data of BD cases and meteorological variables from 2014 to 2019, using generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the relationship between meteorological variables and BD cases and distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) to analyze the lag and cumulative effects. The interaction effects and stratified analysis were developed by the GAM.@*RESULTS@#A total of 147,001 cases were reported from 2014 to 2019. The relationship between temperature and BD was approximately liner above 0 °C, but the turning point of total temperature effect was 10 °C. Results of DLNM indicated that the effect of high temperature was significant on lag 5d and lag 6d, and the lag effect showed that each 5 °C rise caused a 3% [Relative risk (RR) = 1.03, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 1.02-1.05] increase in BD cases. The cumulative BD cases delayed by 7 days increased by 31% for each 5 °C rise in temperature above 10 °C (RR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.30-1.33). The interaction effects and stratified analysis manifested that the incidence of BD was highest in hot and humid climates.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This study suggests that temperature can significantly affect the incidence of BD, and its effect can be enhanced by humidity and precipitation, which means that the hot and humid environment positively increases the incidence of BD.

Associations between floods and bacillary dysentery cases in main urban areas of Chongqing, China, 2005-2016: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND@#Understanding the association between floods and bacillary dysentery (BD) incidence is necessary for us to assess the health risk of extreme weather events. This study aims at exploring the association between floods and daily bacillary dysentery cases in main urban areas of Chongqing between 2005 and 2016 as well as evaluating the attributable risk from floods.@*METHODS@#The association between floods and daily bacillary dysentery cases was evaluated by using distributed lag non-linear model, controlling for meteorological factors, long-term trend, seasonality, and day of week. The fraction and number of bacillary dysentery cases attributable to floods was calculated. Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the association across age, gender, and occupation.@*RESULTS@#After controlling the impact of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, long-term trend, and seasonality, a significant lag effect of floods on bacillary dysentery cases was found at 0-day, 3-day, and 4-day lag, and the cumulative relative risk (CRR) over a 7-lag day period was 1.393 (95%CI 1.216-1.596). Male had higher risk than female. People under 5 years old and people aged 15-64 years old had significantly higher risk. Students, workers, and children had significantly higher risk. During the study period, based on 7-lag days, the attributable fraction of bacillary dysentery cases due to floods was 1.10% and the attributable number was 497 persons.@*CONCLUSIONS@#This study confirms that floods can increase the risk of bacillary dysentery incidence in main urban areas of Chongqing within an accurate time scale, the risk of bacillary dysentery caused by floods is still serious. The key population includes male, people under 5 years old, students, workers, and children. Considering the lag effect of floods on bacillary dysentery, the government and public health emergency departments should advance to the emergency health response in order to minimize the potential risk of floods on public.

Clinico etiological spectrum and antibiotic sensitivity profile of bacillary dysentery in a tertiary care hospital in Kashmir, India

Background: Diarrheal disorders along with dysentery constitute the second killer infections in childhood. In fact, more than half of the dysentery cases are recorded in children under 9 years of age. Shigella infection comprises well over 60% of dysentery cases in age group of 6 month to 5 years. Shigella flexneri is the commonest etiology encountered in developing nations. E. coli and campylobacter comprises the second important bacterial isolates in childhood dysentery. The objective of this study was to ascertain the clinical spectrum, etiological profile and local antibiotic sensitivity of the enteropathogens isolated.Methods: 147 serial dysentery cases admitted in GB Panth hospital Srinagar, which is an associated hospital of government medical college Srinagar from October 2014 to September 2015 were taken up for the study. A thorough and detailed history and examination was taken and recorded as per the proforma. Freshly collected stool sample was subjected to gross and microscopic examination; and after due bacteriological instructions was cultured on enrichment and selective media as per the need. Antibiotic sensitivity was done using disc diffusion method.Results: Maximum cases occurred in 1-5 years age group. Malnutrition grades II and III recorded the highest admissions. Most of cases had moderate dehydration. Although not frequent severe anemia, paralytic ileus and renal failure were the commoner complications. Shigella was grown in 12.24% of cases. Among them Shigella flexeneri serotype was encountered in 65% patients. Drug resistance was seen for many of the antibacterials like amoxycillin, ampicillin, norfloxacin, cotrimoxazole and nalidixic acid. However, they were susceptible to ceftriaxone and amikacin in well over 80% cases. E. coli isolates had similar antibiotic sensitivity profiles, with most susceptibility to amikacin and ceftriaxone.Conclusions: Drug sensitivity and resistance pattern is a variable phenomenon and changes from place to place and time to time. Hence there is a need to document the local pattern of an area so as to guide a judicious antibiotic administration.

Pathogenic surveillance and related factors on bacillary dysentery in Beijing, 2008-2017 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the pathogenic surveillance programs and related factors on bacillary dysentery in Beijing,2008-2017,to provide evidence for the practices of diagnosis,treatment and prevention of the disease.Methods Analysis was conducted on surveillance data of bacillary dysentery,collected from the surveillance areas of national bacillary dysentery in Beijing.Shigella positive rate of stool samples were used as the gold standard while detection rate of Shigella,diagnostic accordance rate and resistance were computed on data from the surveillance programs.Chi-square test was used to compare the rates and unconditional logistic regression was used to analyze the related factors of Shigella infection.Results Both the reported incidence rate on bacillary dysentery and detection rate of Shigella in diarrhea patients showed significantly decreasing trend,from 2008 to 2017.The accordance rate of bacillary dysentery was only 7.80％ (111/1 423).Shigella sonnei was the most frequently isolated strain (73.95％,159/215) followed by Shigella flexnery.Results from the multivariate logistic regression of Shigella positive rate revealed that among those patients who were routine test of stool positive vs.routine test of stool positive (OR=1.863,95％CI:1.402-2.475),onset from July to October vs.other months' time (OR=7.271,95％CI:4.514-11.709) temperature ≥38 ℃ vs.temperature ＜38 ℃ (OR=4.516,95％CI:3.369-6.053) and age from 6 to 59 years old vs.other ages (OR =1.617,95 ％ CI:1.085-2.410),presenting higher positive detection rates of Shigella from the stool tests.The resistant rates on ampicillin and nalidixic acid were 97.57％ (201/206) and 94.90％ (186/196),both higher than on other antibiotics.The resistant rates on ciprofloxacin (16.33％,32/196),ofloxacin (9.57％,11/115) and on amoxilin (15.05％,31/206) were relatively low.The resistant rate appeared higher on Shigellaflexnery than on Shigella sonnei.The proportion of strains with resistance on 3 more drugs,was 30.00％ (21/70).Conclusions The diagnostic accordance rate of bacillary dysentery in Beijing was low,with severe resistance of Shigella.Our findings suggested that clinicians should take multiple factors into account in their practices about epidemiological history,clinical symptom and testing results for diarrhea patients.

Pathogenic surveillance and related factors on bacillary dysentery in Beijing, 2008-2017 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the pathogenic surveillance programs and related factors on bacillary dysentery in Beijing,2008-2017,to provide evidence for the practices of diagnosis,treatment and prevention of the disease.Methods Analysis was conducted on surveillance data of bacillary dysentery,collected from the surveillance areas of national bacillary dysentery in Beijing.Shigella positive rate of stool samples were used as the gold standard while detection rate of Shigella,diagnostic accordance rate and resistance were computed on data from the surveillance programs.Chi-square test was used to compare the rates and unconditional logistic regression was used to analyze the related factors of Shigella infection.Results Both the reported incidence rate on bacillary dysentery and detection rate of Shigella in diarrhea patients showed significantly decreasing trend,from 2008 to 2017.The accordance rate of bacillary dysentery was only 7.80％ (111/1 423).Shigella sonnei was the most frequently isolated strain (73.95％,159/215) followed by Shigella flexnery.Results from the multivariate logistic regression of Shigella positive rate revealed that among those patients who were routine test of stool positive vs.routine test of stool positive (OR=1.863,95％CI:1.402-2.475),onset from July to October vs.other months' time (OR=7.271,95％CI:4.514-11.709) temperature ≥38 ℃ vs.temperature ＜38 ℃ (OR=4.516,95％CI:3.369-6.053) and age from 6 to 59 years old vs.other ages (OR =1.617,95 ％ CI:1.085-2.410),presenting higher positive detection rates of Shigella from the stool tests.The resistant rates on ampicillin and nalidixic acid were 97.57％ (201/206) and 94.90％ (186/196),both higher than on other antibiotics.The resistant rates on ciprofloxacin (16.33％,32/196),ofloxacin (9.57％,11/115) and on amoxilin (15.05％,31/206) were relatively low.The resistant rate appeared higher on Shigellaflexnery than on Shigella sonnei.The proportion of strains with resistance on 3 more drugs,was 30.00％ (21/70).Conclusions The diagnostic accordance rate of bacillary dysentery in Beijing was low,with severe resistance of Shigella.Our findings suggested that clinicians should take multiple factors into account in their practices about epidemiological history,clinical symptom and testing results for diarrhea patients.

Application of a support vector regression on prediction of bacillary dysentery combined with meteorological and air pollutants index / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To explore the application of support vector regression (SVR) model combined with meteorological and air pollutants index in the prediction of the cases of bacillary dysentery in Lanzhou City, so as to provide scientific reference for the prevention and control of bacillary dysentery.Methods Time series data of the reported cases of bacillary dysentery from December 2013 to August 2016, combined with the meteorological and air pollutants data, were used as training set to fit support vector regression model. The data from September 2016 to December 2017 was used as validation set to verify the model and compare the effect in fit and prediction with different models. Results A total of 7 192 bacillary dysentery cases were reported in Lanzhou City from 2013 to 2017. The correlation coefficient of meteorological and pollution factors with the cases of bacillary dysentery was more than 0.4, except air pressure. The parameters of the fit model were selected based on the integrated data, acquiring the three parameters with the smallest test error were C=5, γ=0.02 and ε=0.000 1, respectively. The validation set was used to test the different models, which showed that the integrated data model had the best predictive accuracy and robustness . The root mean squared error (RMSE) was 0.164 7 and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 16.405%. Conclusion SVR model combined with meteorological and air pollutants index is effective in the prediction of bacterial dysentery.

A comparative study of the efficacy and tolerability of parenteral ceftriaxone and cefotaxime in pediatric population for acute bacillary dysentery in a tertiary care hospital

Background: Diarrheal disorders in childhood account for a large proportion (18%) of childhood mortality. Among diarrheal diseases, dysentery is a major cause of childhood morbidity and mortality, especially in developing countries.Methods: This is an open labelled, prospective, randomised, comparative study carried out at Dr. B. R. Ambedkar Medical College Hospital, Bangalore from November 2014 to November 2015 after Institutional Ethics Committee approval. A total of 80 Paediatric patients who met the inclusion criteria were included in the study after taking written informed consent from parents and assigned into two groups, Group A- Inj. Ceftriaxone (50-100mg/kg/day) and Group B- Inj. Cefotaxime (100 mg/kg/day) in divided doses for a period of 3-5 days based on requirement.Results: In this study, Cefotaxime was non inferior to Ceftriaxone as the Mean Duration of Hospitalisation was 3.30±0.72 days in Group A and 3.30± 0.72 days in Group B with p value of 1.000, showing no statistically significant difference. Both were well tolerated without any reports of ADR (Adverse Drug Reaction).Conclusions: In this study shows that Inj. Cefotaxime is equally efficacious and well tolerated as Inj. Ceftriaxone in the treatment of Acute Bacillary Dysentery in paediatric patients.

Association between distribution of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Beijing, 2004-2015 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Beijing during 2004-2015 and evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery.Methods The incidence data of bacterial dysentery and meteorological data in Beijing from 2004 to 2015 were collected.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to study the distribution characteristics of bacterial dysentery.Linear correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to investigate the relationship between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and average precipitation,average air temperature,sunshine hours,average wind speed,average air pressure,gale and rain days.Results A total of 280 704 cases of bacterial dysentery,including 36 deaths,were reported from 2004 to 2015 in Beijing,the average annual incidence was 130.15/100 000.The annual incidence peak was mainly between May and October,the cases occurred during this period accounted for 80.75％ of the total,and the incidence was highest in age group 0 year.The population distribution showed that most cases were children outside child care settings and students,and the sex ratio of the cases was 1.22 ∶ 1.The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery was positively associated with average precipitation,average air temperature and rain days with the correlation coefficients of 0.931,0.878 and 0.888,but it was negatively associated with the average pressure,the correlation coefficient was-0.820.Multiple linear regression equation for fitting analysis of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors was Y=3.792 + 0.162X1.Conclusion The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing was much higher than national level.The annual incidence peak was during July to August,and the average precipitation was an important meteorological factor influencing the incidence of bacillary dysentery.

Temporal-spatial analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area of China, 2005-2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery in Chongqing,Yichang and Enshi (the Three Gorges Area) from 2005 to 2016,and provide evidence for the disease prevention and control.Methods The incidence data of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area during this period were collected from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System.The spatial-temporal scan statistic was conducted with software SaTScan 9.4 and bacillary dysentery clusters were visualized with software ArcGIS 10.3.Results A total of 126 196 cases were reported in the Three Gorges Area during 2005-2016,with an average incidence rate of 29.67/100 000.The overall incidence was in a downward trend,with an average annual decline rate of 4.74％.Cases occurred all the year round but with an obvious seasonal increase between May and October.Among the reported cases,44.71％ (56 421/126 196) were children under 5-year-old,the cases in children outside child care settings accounted for 41.93％ (52 918/126 196) of the total.The incidence rates in districts of Yuzhong,Dadukou,Jiangbei,Shapingba,Jiulongpo,Nanan,Yubei,Chengkou of Chongqing and districts of Xiling and Wujiagang of Yichang city of Hubei province were high,ranging from 60.20/100 000 to 114.81/100 000.Spatial-temporal scan statistic for the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery during this period revealed that the temporal distribution was during May-October,and there were 12 class Ⅰ clusters,35 class Ⅱ clusters,and 9 clusters without statistical significance in counties with high incidence.All the class Ⅰ clusters were in urban area of Chongqing (Yuzhong,Dadukou,Jiangbei,Shapingba,Jiulongpo,Nanan,Beibei,Yubei,Banan)and surrounding counties,and the class Ⅱ clusters transformed from concentrated distribution to scattered distribution.Conclusions Temporal and spatial cluster of bacillary dysentery incidence existed in the three gorges area during 2005-2016.It is necessary to strengthen the bacillary dysentery prevention and control in urban areas of Chongqing and Yichang.

Association between distribution of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors in Beijing, 2004-2015 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the distribution characteristics of bacillary dysentery in Beijing during 2004-2015 and evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the temporal and spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery.Methods The incidence data of bacterial dysentery and meteorological data in Beijing from 2004 to 2015 were collected.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted to study the distribution characteristics of bacterial dysentery.Linear correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were carried out to investigate the relationship between the incidence of bacillary dysentery and average precipitation,average air temperature,sunshine hours,average wind speed,average air pressure,gale and rain days.Results A total of 280 704 cases of bacterial dysentery,including 36 deaths,were reported from 2004 to 2015 in Beijing,the average annual incidence was 130.15/100 000.The annual incidence peak was mainly between May and October,the cases occurred during this period accounted for 80.75％ of the total,and the incidence was highest in age group 0 year.The population distribution showed that most cases were children outside child care settings and students,and the sex ratio of the cases was 1.22 ∶ 1.The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery was positively associated with average precipitation,average air temperature and rain days with the correlation coefficients of 0.931,0.878 and 0.888,but it was negatively associated with the average pressure,the correlation coefficient was-0.820.Multiple linear regression equation for fitting analysis of bacillary dysentery and meteorological factors was Y=3.792 + 0.162X1.Conclusion The reported incidence of bacillary dysentery in Beijing was much higher than national level.The annual incidence peak was during July to August,and the average precipitation was an important meteorological factor influencing the incidence of bacillary dysentery.

Temporal-spatial analysis of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area of China, 2005-2016 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery in Chongqing,Yichang and Enshi (the Three Gorges Area) from 2005 to 2016,and provide evidence for the disease prevention and control.Methods The incidence data of bacillary dysentery in the Three Gorges Area during this period were collected from National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting System.The spatial-temporal scan statistic was conducted with software SaTScan 9.4 and bacillary dysentery clusters were visualized with software ArcGIS 10.3.Results A total of 126 196 cases were reported in the Three Gorges Area during 2005-2016,with an average incidence rate of 29.67/100 000.The overall incidence was in a downward trend,with an average annual decline rate of 4.74％.Cases occurred all the year round but with an obvious seasonal increase between May and October.Among the reported cases,44.71％ (56 421/126 196) were children under 5-year-old,the cases in children outside child care settings accounted for 41.93％ (52 918/126 196) of the total.The incidence rates in districts of Yuzhong,Dadukou,Jiangbei,Shapingba,Jiulongpo,Nanan,Yubei,Chengkou of Chongqing and districts of Xiling and Wujiagang of Yichang city of Hubei province were high,ranging from 60.20/100 000 to 114.81/100 000.Spatial-temporal scan statistic for the spatial and temporal distributions of bacillary dysentery during this period revealed that the temporal distribution was during May-October,and there were 12 class Ⅰ clusters,35 class Ⅱ clusters,and 9 clusters without statistical significance in counties with high incidence.All the class Ⅰ clusters were in urban area of Chongqing (Yuzhong,Dadukou,Jiangbei,Shapingba,Jiulongpo,Nanan,Beibei,Yubei,Banan)and surrounding counties,and the class Ⅱ clusters transformed from concentrated distribution to scattered distribution.Conclusions Temporal and spatial cluster of bacillary dysentery incidence existed in the three gorges area during 2005-2016.It is necessary to strengthen the bacillary dysentery prevention and control in urban areas of Chongqing and Yichang.

Influence of humidex on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Hefei: a time-series study / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To investigate the effect of humidex combined with mean temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Hefei. Methods Daily counts of bacillary dysentery cases and weather data in Hefei were collected from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2013. Then, the humidex was calculated from temperature and relative humidity. A Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to analyze the relationship between humidex and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, after adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, day of week and other weather confounders. Stratified analyses by gender, age and address were also conducted. Results The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the rise of humidex. The adverse effect of high humidex (90 percentile of humidex) appeared in 2- days lag and it was the largest at 4-days lag (RR=1.063, 95%CI:1.037-1.090). Subgroup analyses indicated that all groups were affected by high humidex at lag 2-5 days. Conclusion High humidex could significantly increase the risk of bacillary dysentery, and the lagged effects were observed.

Influence of humidex on incidence of bacillary dysentery in Hefei: a time-series study / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To investigate the effect of humidex combined with mean temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Hefei. Methods Daily counts of bacillary dysentery cases and weather data in Hefei were collected from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2013. Then, the humidex was calculated from temperature and relative humidity. A Poisson generalized linear regression combined with distributed lag non-linear model was applied to analyze the relationship between humidex and the incidence of bacillary dysentery, after adjusting for long-term and seasonal trends, day of week and other weather confounders. Stratified analyses by gender, age and address were also conducted. Results The risk of bacillary dysentery increased with the rise of humidex. The adverse effect of high humidex (90 percentile of humidex) appeared in 2- days lag and it was the largest at 4-days lag (RR=1.063, 95%CI:1.037-1.090). Subgroup analyses indicated that all groups were affected by high humidex at lag 2-5 days. Conclusion High humidex could significantly increase the risk of bacillary dysentery, and the lagged effects were observed.

Study on influence of floods on bacillary dysentery incidence in Liaoning province, 2004-2010 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To understand the influence of floods on bacillary dysentery in Liaoning province.Methods The monthly surveillance data of bacillary dysentery,floods,meteorological and demographic data in Liaoning from 2004 to 2010 were collected.Panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Liaoning.Results The mean monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery was 2.17 per 100 000 during the study period,the bacillary dysentery cases mainly occurred in during July-September.Spearman correlation analysis showed that no lagged effect was detected in the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery.After adjusting the influence of meteorological factors,panel data analysis showed that the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery existed and the incidence rate ratio was 1.439 4 (95％CI:1.408 1-1.471 4).Conclusion Floods could significantly increase the risk of bacillary dysentery for population in Liaoning.

Study on influence of floods on bacillary dysentery incidence in Liaoning province, 2004-2010 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To understand the influence of floods on bacillary dysentery in Liaoning province.Methods The monthly surveillance data of bacillary dysentery,floods,meteorological and demographic data in Liaoning from 2004 to 2010 were collected.Panel Poisson regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery in Liaoning.Results The mean monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery was 2.17 per 100 000 during the study period,the bacillary dysentery cases mainly occurred in during July-September.Spearman correlation analysis showed that no lagged effect was detected in the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery.After adjusting the influence of meteorological factors,panel data analysis showed that the influence of floods on the incidence of bacillary dysentery existed and the incidence rate ratio was 1.439 4 (95％CI:1.408 1-1.471 4).Conclusion Floods could significantly increase the risk of bacillary dysentery for population in Liaoning.

Shewanella algae in acute gastroenteritis.

Shewanella algae is an emerging bacteria rarely implicated as a human pathogen. Previously reported cases of S. algae have mainly been associated with direct contact with seawater. Here we report the isolation of S. algae as the sole etiological agent from a patient suffering from acute gastroenteritis with bloody diarrhoea. The bacterium was identifi ed by automated identifi cation system and 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis. Our report highlights the importance of looking for the relatively rare aetiological agents in clinical samples that does not yield common pathogens. It also underscores the usefulness of automated systems in identifi cation of rare pathogens.

Application of ARIMA model to forecasting bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan City / 重庆医学

Objective To explore the feasibility of the application of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model to forcast the monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan ,and to provide scientific references for prevention and control .Methods SAS 9 .2 software was used to fit the ARIMA model for the monthly incidence rate of bacil‐lary dysentery from 2005 to 2013 .Thereafter ,the fitted model was used to forecast the data from January to June in 2014 ,and was evaluated by comparing the actual incidence .Results The ARIMA(0 ,1 ,1)X(0 ,1 ,1)12 model had a better fitted effect ,it was pre‐dicted that the incidence of bacillary dysentery of Jianghan District of Wuhan City from January to June 2014 would increase slight‐ly ,and the forecast data of bacillary dysentery from January 2005 to December 2013 consisted with the actual situation .Conclusion ARIM A model can be used as short‐term forecasting model to predict the monthly incidence rate of bacillary dysentery in Jianghan District of Wuhan .

Antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes of Shigella sonnei in Chang-sha area / 中国感染控制杂志

Objective To investigate the antimicrobial susceptibility and the carrying of virulence genes of Shigel-la sonnei (S.sonnei)in Changsha area.Methods Susceptibilities of 30 S.sonnei strains to 6 kinds of antimicrobial agents (ampicillin,cefotaxime,nalidixic acid,ciprofloxacin,gentamicin,compound sulfamethoxazole)were detec-ted by disc diffusion method;4 virulence genes (set1 ,sen,ial,ipaH)were amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR).Results Of all detected antimicrobial agents,ampicillin,nalidixic acid and compound sulfamethoxazole had the highest resistance rate(100%);while ciprofloxacin and gentamicin had higher susceptibility rate (93.33% and 83.33% respectively).PCR revealed that the carrying rate of set1,sen,ial and ipaH in 30 S.sonnei strains was 0, 13.33%,13.33% and 53.33% respectively.Conclusion Resistance of S.sonnei to the third-generation cefalosporins and sulfonamides are quite serious,third-generation quinolones can still be used as the first choice of drug treatment for S.sonnei infection.Carrying rate of virulence genes are low among S.sonnei in Changsha area.